37 Comments
User's avatar
Belte's avatar

Some people cannot handle winning. They are constitutionally built to be losers and to complain. They must not determine our approach to politics and strategy. Think about your own life. Don’t you know people who just bemoan their fate and doom about everything? And when they get an occasional win, their neuroticism makes them spoil it. Imagine listening to these types for do-or-die situations like we are in right now as a country. By the way, I love these long pieces you write almost like cultural position papers (despite the “listen” feature on Substack not offering Biden voiceover mode).

SB's avatar

>Think about your own life. Don’t you know people who just bemoan their fate and doom about everything? And when they get an occasional win, their neuroticism makes them spoil it.

Incredibly timely comment for me, I was just talking to a co-worker this morning -- a very capable and competent person, i.e. not otherwise retarded -- who nevertheless complained for almost a solid hour about the $500/month bonus they will be receiving. "Well it's not as good as a straight salary increase." They are actually unhappier now than if they'd never gotten the bonus!

I often see myself as overly passive and pessimistic, and I have a lot of room for self-improvement in those areas -- but man, the bar is on the floor.

Belte's avatar

Incredible. We all have countless stories of these types from real-life. “Oh, I just won some raffle but now I have to drive 20 minutes to collect. This is terrible!” Or a relative who was offered a free laptop from their parents for graduation but flamed out because it wasn’t the “right” brand, so they ended up with nothing. Just as we try to distance ourselves from them in our personal lives lest we be poisoned by their negativity or somehow receive their bad fate, we need to cut these influencers off from our listening and watching habits online. Go cold turkey!

Raider's avatar

“Don’t you know people who just bemoan their fate and doom about everything? And when they get an occasional win, their neuroticism makes them spoil it.” Ah, I see you’ve met some of my relatives.

Grouchy Quiche's avatar

Incredibly and thoughtfully well said. You, Night owls, and Scott Greer are single handily pushing back against this high level of retardation.

Trump Derangement has its counter on the Right with Trump Betrayal Syndrome, both are a quick path to hysteric bleating and losing every ounce of power granted.

Raider's avatar

A part of the Iliad that’s always stuck with me was when Hector rebuked his troops for their cowardice and defeatism after seeing an omen that they believed foretold their doom.

“Without a sign, his sword the brave man draws, And asks no omen but his country's cause.”

His rebuke goes on much longer, but the belief that you should reject anything that scares you out of fighting for your country is one I wish more would embrace.

SB's avatar

One of the most depressing instances was seeing OilFieldRando chimping about Mullin.

This is a really smart guy who's done great stuff on his account, and who himself wrote a viral tweet that literally said "Here’s what I want from the Trump admin on immigration: Lie to normies. Just lie to them." -- and then when Mullin uses THIS specific tactic, it goes right over OFR's head and he starts attacking him!

And I don't think OFR is a bad actor here, it just goes to show how even completely well-meaning people with the right ideas are getting totally lost in the sauce.

bearbottle's avatar

At the end of the day, stream of consciousness tweets just get more engagement. The more heart and less actual thought you put in them, the greater engagement chances. There is always the temptation to give into your base instincts when seeing a headline designed to upset you

Vials's avatar

Great article I have nothing of value to add but I really enjoyed reading it and I sent it to 3 people

HighHorse's avatar

I think if Trump was on twitter these sort of middlemen wouldn’t matter so much, things would be much more clearly polarized around him and there would be little room for these sorts of “trump sucks for based reasons” types

Belte's avatar

Trump reappearing on Twitter would be just like the lion in the epic speech by Christopher Walken in “Poolside Junkies” (2002) (https://youtu.be/zIiA4SM3LEY).

“The jackals... hyenas... get closer and closer and bolder and bolder, 'till one day... that lion gets up and tears the shit outta everybody... 'Cause every once in a while, the lion has to show the jackals who he is."

Mav's avatar

It’s Shark Week btw

Lane VDM's avatar

For sharks, it’s human week. Huzzah!

Chud State Caesar's avatar

When Vance was announced as VP many people were enamored by the fact that he swam in online-RW circles. The result was “Vance is our guy.” Which nothing is wrong with the idea but the problem lies with the fact that some people took that idea to the extreme seeing him as a peer, like you said. It reminds me of a situation when a friend at work becomes your boss or gets a promotion, tensions can arise from the chance in dynamics. Obviously there are still plenty of saboteurs just acting in bad faith towards

Vance.

Ben Mordecai's avatar

Agree with the article, but I still think that the Iran war was a good decision. Iran has been a problem for a long time, and there was a short fuse to catastrophe due to their collaboration with China for their missile program and their intention to build a nuclear weapon. If they were permitted to keep doing what they were doing for much longer, things would have been far worse. I think a lot of people make the mistake of thinking that the null hypothesis for the war was "Things continue as they were" which was not going to happen. Iran with nuclear deterrence would already be a disaster (they could close the Strait at any time but also use nukes), but Iran has also shown that they don't negotiate in good faith and aren't even motivated by ordinary rational self-interest.

Something had to be done about Iran and the decision to strike the leadership all at once was likely the decisive reason it has gone so well. Likewise with the decision to not run the war like a humanitarian crisis or try to install troops. Instead, to just have a ratcheting wrench of pain where we make demands of Iran, then turn things up a notch and see if they make a deal, if not ratchet up again, and kill more leadership.

It also massively impacts China, which in an entire other angle. When the war kicked off, I wrote a long article on it on my Substack. It is still mostly accurate though one of my predictions has not come true yet (and may never).

thecobrasnose's avatar

Largely agree. This was a big move by President Trump, but he has made clear how intractable Iran's leadership is (and the folly of dealing with them like a typical establishment) and how fickle the EU nations are as allies (justifying restructuring alliances differently). I don't know if it will pay off in the end, but the potential seems much greater than the downsides we have seen so far.

Ben Mordecai's avatar

Agree. The greatest risks were: a) decapitation strike fails and there is egg on our face for attempting b) Iran retaliates very quickly with conventional military and missile program and mass casualties of American soldiers occurred. c) Highly unlikely, but China comes to Iran's aid in a big way. The fact that they didn't shows the world that being ally with China doesn't mean they have your back when you need them.

None of the 3 happened. The big point of anxiety after decapitation was whether we could get regime change without boots on the ground. Trump never wanted boots on the ground but also never wanted to say, "No boots on the ground" on the principle that you never tell your enemy what you are unwilling to do because they will design their strategy around it. Trump has instead bet that we can crush Iran for an indefinite amount of time all while twisting their arms, assassinating their leaders, and keeping going until we find someone who is willing to be rational.

We still have the ability to cause them much more pain. We could destroy or seize Kharg Island. We can destroy water desalination, power plants, civilian bridges, block food imports. We have the ability to inflict as much pain as we want and the "brown enemy crying" effect is getting weaker and weaker as no one wants to defend Iran besides insane people and Muslims.

The MOU that fell through gave a rational actor a major off ramp. You can join the rest of the Middle East and become friendly to the US and get rich, or you can continue dying, irrationally boasting while your civilization is destroyed, and allying with countries that don't have your back. Be smart and you can live like kings. Be radical Muslims and you keep dying.

I predicted that the Shah Reza Phalavi comes back, which hasn't proven true, but who knows. If the IRGC functionally can't project power domestically and protestors (likely with Israeli support), manage to seize checkpoints, police stations, deliver IR heads on pikes, it is plausible you get domestic regime change, especially if US backed aid shipments can make it to the right civilians. If not... they can just die. Trump won, we don't have to cry about Muslims who hate us and are loyal to a suicidal Islamic regime dying.

Based on polling (who knows if reliable) before Epic Fury, between the people who wanted a secular democracy and monarchists, greater than 50% would support a secular government with someone like Reza Phalavi elected democratically, or as a provisional governor with elections in the future. So I still think it is possible, but seems less likely since February 28th.

But what we get out of this is Iran functionally rendered useless on the global stage, their one Trump card rendered moot. A new Middle East focused not on American + Israel but America plus a bunch of Middle Eastern partners with Israel included.

There is so much to be optimistic about this and really the greatest hazards are the domestic impact if a) the retard right exaggerates the importance of this event and b) if we get a Democrat successor to Trump and they ruin the progress that Trump made.

thecobrasnose's avatar

Semi-related to your comment and to MG's post, when I saw people online to whom I had listened become entirely negative on the conflict--not just skeptical but almost rooting for the other side in order to validate their judgement over the President's aims. I'm NOT saying skepticism isn't/ wasn't warranted--this was different. A mm-HM! moment.

Ben Mordecai's avatar

I was kicked out of OGC for going hard against the Redwoods chapter president who openly rooted for Iran, alone with the founder of OGC national, Thomas777 who said "hail Iran, hail victory" and Pete Quinonez who supported all of this. This is unforgivable treachery apart from open repentance and total repudiation.

thecobrasnose's avatar

What is OGC? Though whatever it is, good for you for speaking out. Hope you weren't alone.

Ben Mordecai's avatar

Old Glory Club. It is supposed to be a men's fraternity based on being right-wing.

Arkditi's avatar

I saw a fairly big account on X yesterday positing that ACB might block the end of TPS for haitians. Both procedurally not how it works, and not reality aligned because with 2 minutes of research you would find that in fact she was part of the majority in the Supreme Court decision to allow the administration to end it. He actually liked my quote xost pointing all of this out but his post is still up and got like 2k likes, each of whom are now perhaps a little bit more irrationally demoralized for having that idea put in their head. People really don't care about understanding how things actually function, or about the truth generally, even when it's easily accessible. They just want to invent scenarios in their head to upset themselves.

..'s avatar

I feel pretty positive about Vance if that's the best Dave Chappelle can come up with. South Park had a beyond lazy running "joke" about him as well. I don't think they know what to do with him after unloading everything they had on Trump for a decade. Will it just be repetitive, worn out couch jokes for the entire campaign?

I still like Tucker, but it does feel like rooting for an old pitcher who can only occasionally dial up the old fastball. I hope that since Elon could get back in the fold after calling Trump a pedo that Tucker can reconcile.

Domestic vs foreign policy, I find it kind of interesting that no small district judge has tried to make a name for themself and roadblock what Trump is doing in Iran. They seem to try to strike down everything he does domestically (which I have to think some misplaced frustration on the right comes from this) even when SCOTUS has ruled in Trump's favor. Maybe they will depending on the outcome of the midterms? I obviously don't want this level of judicial overreach though.

Y0324Y's avatar

🎯🎯🎯

Poaster's avatar

Fantastic article and agree 100%. It does seem to be disturbing how everyone in this "sphere" so to speak is now basically just full on f trump and f vance. Also the whole epstein saga has really done damage imo. Michael Tracey has been one of the sole voices pushing back on this stuff. But yeah people like tucker, fuentes, thomas massie, etc. I dunno what to think. It honestly just seems like people are going a little crazy. Like someone has turned the mental illness dial up a few notches.

thecobrasnose's avatar

I wonder if the Fauci hearings will help refocus here. I'm always astounded at how meekly some otherwise intelligent people submitted to lockdown nonsense and haven't heard a peep out of them, but wouldn't mind seeing those who were correctly outraged before become outraged (and focused) again.

Poaster's avatar

Astute observation and honestly it tracks. The headlines I’ve seen etc maybe we are getting a shift and people can refocus.

Nixonsdaydreams's avatar

Great article covers a lot of my current sentiments.

Every day there is some new greatest betrayal ever that eclipses the last greatest betrayal ever from 5 minutes ago on X. We see this everytime a bad bill is proposed or submitted that is certainly DOA in committee but many RW influencers act as if it had already passed and President Trump signed it into law.

It's always a jump to declare defeat rather than a call to action like letting your rep know you don't agree with the bill and pushing back on its authors to show it's unpopular. No useful action just incoherent anger that burns people out.

James R. R.'s avatar

Although I concur entirely that “defeatism and defeatists” are a threat, and that those purposefully propagating disinformation and personally profiting from the demoralization of their own side ought to be ostracized, “the greatest threat” is President Trump’s failure to relieve the mounting cost of living, and in fact to have undeniably exacerbated it.

We like to believe that the 2024 election was an endorsement of all our positions on “identity issues,” as Scott Greer terms them, but these are marginal issues to the mass of voters, who may gripe about wokeness, but are nevertheless fundamentally motivated by “kitchen-table economics.” Insofar as those issues are addressed, people will assent to other aspects of our agenda that, in isolation, they might not have voted for, if not have voted against—and vice versa.

While the president’s power to control inflation is limited, he can at least “do no harm,” but between the tariff fiasco and now another Middle-East war, he’s done more harm than good. Starting this war, then stopping it, then restarting it, has been a catastrophe, and has gifted the Blues winning rhetoric for the stump this election. It is correct that most Americans care more about domestic politics than foreign policy (and perhaps at this point are resigned to forever wars in the Middle East), but the exception in this case is that this war, by causing a global oil crisis, is affecting domestic politics and forcing Americans to care about foreign policy.

Anecdotally, every single independent I know (and at least one Blue) who voted Trump/Red in 2024 is now not planning to vote, or considering voting Blue, because they feel betrayed. None of them are libtards; they’re just normies who wanted a return to normalcy and instead got the president crashing the stock market with meme economics, acting out the “Great Satan” on Easter Sunday, and lecturing them that $80 fill-ups are the price of freedom.

Those Reds who are attempting to redefine the old “American exceptionalism” foreign policy, derived from “propositionalism,” “creedalism,” and Yankee messianism as “America First” must be repudiated, to say nothing of the foreign influence that dare not speak its name. The death of Lindsey Graham by no means removes this danger, which may actually be more insidious without such a ludicrous wrist-flapping, lisping spokesman. The war which they have wrought may entangle Trump in partisan lawfare, encumber his successor, and abort a generational political realignment.

Daniel V. Gaglio's avatar

I finally got to listen to this on my way to the gym. I strongly recommend people log off and get some good physical activity. It resets the brain