I desperately want to share this with the pro-DeSantis faction of my family but it will fall on deaf ears or start a fight! I'm spoiling for a battle though...
I like DeSantis as far as his governance of FL. I wish more people would govern the way he does. I even like what he did with Disney. I like his six-week ban (but I'm so radical, I would support a universal ban unless the life of the mother is in danger; no one will ever change my mind that killing the most defenseless among us is a beneficent act). But you're right. He aligned himself with Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush and all those other Commies dressed up as RINOs. What was he thinking? It does call his judgement into question. A big problem I had with the last debate is that all the candidates up there pretended like our country isn't being burned to the ground in front of our eyes. It shouldn't be surprising they did it again this go-round.
He should have just been patient, supported Trump and expanded his model of executive leadership to other red states, and sailed into 2028 as its presumptive nominee. Oh well.
I agree for a guy who has years ahead for him it doesn't make sense to burn bridges with MAGA. I say drop out so we can concentrate on Biden or his replacement. 2028 and beyond is were DeSantis should strive for. Keep in mind this is Trump's last run for President!!! If he loses in 2024 he will just retire, and can afford burning bridges in the process. That's the luxury DeSantis doesn't have!!
I just don't get what the strategy was for him? There was no scenario in which Trump didn't dominate the primaries and suck up all the oxygen in the room. Also, Trump is a nasty guy—it's not like he'd take a kids glove approach with Ron for GOP solidarity or whatever. There was zero benefit to running against him.
Ever since he announced his run, I've been of the increasing opinion that the powers that be pushed DeSantis into the presidential race not because they thought he could unseat Trump, but to discredit Desantis' gubernatorial career, and eliminate any chance he had of being Trump's political heir after the man could no longer run for President.
I'm sincerely baffled by this sort of take - not in a glib way, I mean this as a statement of sincere not-understanding. It seems transparent to me that DeSantis is the same kind of political entity as Brian Kemp, Brad Raffensperger, or any of the other post-2016 politicians who showed up, got an audience (and an endorsement) from Trump, and then immediately attempted to damage him as much as they could for the benefit of the party establishment. I don't make this judgement emotionally, it just seems like the only model that fits the data.
From the others who very clearly fit this model (and the degree to which GOP governors' primaries are policed - you'll rarely see an outsider get through, and when they do, you can trust the establishment to throw in with the Dems), we get a large prior probability for DeSantis being a similar creature. The strongest evidence, though, is in the posterior. As you say:
> It’s never too late to stop yourself from making a bad decision. If DeSantis wants to save his reputation and prevent disaster, he has to change course. The only right move is to drop out, announce he supports Trump as the nominee, and cancel his debate with Newsom as soon as possible.
This is quite clearly true - the clearer cost-benefit is the other one I've seen stated: that DeSantis could easily have had fame, fortune, and enormous success if he'd used his friendship with Trump and (at least the appearance of) success in Florida to set himself up for 2028. Even if he sincerely preferred establishment policies, he could have implemented them, or "lost gracefully" to a Democrat who'd gladly have done much of the same, upon becoming the 2028 candidate. I don't think he's a complete idiot, but, even if he were one, some things are so universally obvious that incompetence isn't a convincing explanation.
So, that's the basis of my question. It appears to me that, if you model DeSantis's actions as those of someone taking orders from people with a frothing, visceral hatred for Trump (to the point where they'd forego a sure shot at undermining his legacy in favor of getting rid of him "NOW, NOW, NOW!"), then everything lines up fairly cleanly - the otherwise-inexplicable Colorado endorsement, the shots at Trump, and the refusal to abort a doomed presidential campaign in favor of acting as a Schelling point for the dregs of 2016's corps of Nevertrumpers. If you instead model him as a sincere right-winger, or even as a self-interested but ambitious politician, then the only way to unite that with reality is by explaining away nearly every decision he's made as the result of complete incompetence. Given that every time I've seen this take, it's come from someone who seems to sincerely believe he was a skilled, highly-adept executive, it doesn't make sense to me.
Can someone explain what I'm missing, here? Is it just wishful thinking from disaffected right-leaning academic types, who wanted very badly for DeSantis to be what he was advertised as?
> It seems transparent to me that DeSantis is the same kind of political entity as Brian Kemp, Brad Raffensperger, or any of the other post-2016 politicians who showed up, got an audience (and an endorsement) from Trump, and then immediately attempted to damage him as much as they could for the benefit of the party establishment.
So did all those politicians clean up election fraud in their state, lead the way in banning porn from school libraries, and set about cleaning up the CRT from their colleges, including providing a model for how to clean up a college?
Kemp also led a (toothless, IMO) voter fraud effort. "Cleaning up CRT from colleges" is vague enough to be a non-statement, unless there's some measurable data to be had. As far as I can tell, the latter was of the same stripe as everything else DeSantis did - a series of PR stunts intended to cast him as "The Competent Trump", with little effort or intent to follow through. Ditto his 'feud' with Disney, which seems to have disappeared entirely with nothing real gained.
I'm reminded of his "send the migrants to the Vineyard" thing. Were it a serious effort, it would have been exactly what was needed - inflicting the pain of the invasion directly on the people responsible for it. A serious GOP governor would hire an intern to crack open ArcGIS, locate wealthy, homogeneous neighborhoods that donated to Obama/Clinton/Biden, and then bus in the horde until they're either too radicalized to support the Dems or too ruined to support anyone at all. Instead, DeSantis was met with a response that clearly indicated that he was not allowed to do this, and he stopped after one meager busload - the goal was to appear in the news cycle doing something that looked smart, rather than to bring about anything resembling success.
As far as banning porn from school libraries, also difficult to measure, but this was a nationwide effort, so, yes, Republicans everywhere in the country did do this. Largely because the demand (and the action itself) came from the ground level, where there was little the party establishment could do to route it in ineffective or self-sabotaging directions.
I mean, 'Republicans' are also in power in GA, by the same standard. You can argue the exact rigor of the measures taken, but, fundamentally, it's not really relevant. Florida benefitted from a huge influx of motivated right-wingers, it's deep red now because of its demographics alone.
I will say that, even if DeSantis was a complete scam, the aftereffects of the media promoting Florida as a right wing mecca might be felt in interesting ways. A lot of the better politicians elected recently (who have refused to endorse DeSantis, and instead aligned with Trump) have been Floridians, and were potentially propelled to victory by the fact that Florida now has a critical mass of ambitious right-wingers that no other state has.
> So either these guys come after the frontrunner and distinguish themselves, or otherwise they’re wasting everybody’s time, and I say this with a lot of respect.
Well since nothing has been done to stop the Democrats from repeating the 2020 election fraud, technically the whole primary is a waste of time.
When it wasn't clear Trump was gonna run again I saw DeSantis as the obvious heir. Once Trump entered there was no viable path. Trump simply can't be attacked from the right on most issues even where he's squishy because it doesn't land. Attack him from the left and you're another Nikki Haley. We have this awkward situation now where DeSantis attacks from the right, but his camp attacks from both left and right. This also results in the Trump camp attacking from both left and right. I am fine with attacking from the right but the moment everyone attacks from the left we've ceded so much ground to the enemy
Newsom debate should have come with the caveat that Newsom runs for president too. It was an own goal from the start. Fingers crossed he can hold his own. Someone smart in his camp needs to be educating him on Newsom but I have little faith in his camp anymore
It's also very unfortunate that he's not cut out for this, not because of competence but because of temperament. I only saw him at press conferences and friendly media appearances before this. His autism makes me like him way more but it's an issue to voters. People say on the campaign trail that after hearing him talk in depth they like what he has to say even if they're Trump people, but most voters don't listen to any politician talk in depth, they want memes, talking points, and sound bites
Enough people I trust say he was heroic in Florida. I ignore any Trump camp attacks on his record. You are right that we need him (and Youngkin) forging a path forward for GOP governors but there's so little good will left. It's not entirely his fault though, not as long as Laura Loomer is still poasting
I am of the mindset that the Re-election of Trump was about sending a message. I expected the Hutchinsons and Haileys of the world to run “campaigns” But DeSantis and his Florida gang of “RW thought leaders” can get bent, they sound like WaPo writers or MSNBC contributors...none of them should ever be let back in RW circles ever
This might be off topic (and this analysis is excellent, part of a wider body of work that is massively outclassing the "paid professionals" on every side, something that will be commented upon down the road...) but it occurs to me that anyone who thinks Trump is soft on abortion, or taking the wrong position, or thinks he hasn't done enough, needs to answer this question:
Do you support the arrest and incarceration of doctors that perform(ed) abortions, organizations that enabl(ed) abortions, companies that facilitat(ed) abortions, and groups that advocat(ed) for abortion, and if so for how long should they be in jail? I guarantee that the overwhelming majority of the lily-livered moralists that demand we pretend they are Christians would balk at this. They would also oppose fining any woman that had an abortion. The same people that act like we have to kamikaze all possible inroads and opportunities, throw away viable paths to power, just to be frame correct on abortion *because it is heinous murder of children* would never, in a million years, advocate for treating those that perpetuate it like murderers under the law. Why? Because that is optical suicide [by which I mean that they are cowards who like to lose and they have no idea what Time It Is lel] and they would be horrified at the nasty names and things said that would be leveled at them. Abortion as a political issue is the redoubt of the perpetual loser, the Bible thumper that wants attention, the type that love a lost cause because they will never have to show their work or take power or build after a win, and they subconsciously hate Trump for actually changing the entire battlefield in a way that requires them to do more than take a promenade in DC once a year and post mourning porn on the TL.
This is a bit of a rant, I admit it, and I would very much love to be wrong, but I don't think I am. They are perpetual losers, and they aren't alone; if you lever up the 2A rock, or any other "conservative issue," you will find slimy invertebrates who are happy to dominate their scummy little niche and ignore the world outside. And for the record, fines and prison is far, FAR too compassionate for anyone who has participated in literal mass murder and human sacrifice.
I believe DeSantis was always a GOP op going back to 2018. He almost lost to a fruitcake before Trump dragged him across the finish line, because he is a terrible campaigner. His key initiatives to establish his conservative bona fides have been stupid culture war battles while insurance rates in Florida have shot through the roof. My parents have snowbird neighbors that have sold their house in Florida because it's getting too expensive to live there, and they have money.
But the Big Red Flag was how he CAME OUT OF NOWHERE in 2021 to finally be a decent Republican governor. His whole schtick as the anti-COVID governor started AFTER Trump left office, so he couldn't be seen as opposing Trump's policies.
Finally, it's OBVIOUS to anyone that's seen him that the dude is REPULSED by ordinary people. The videos of him forcing himself to smile at average slobs are just cringy as heck.
> His key initiatives to establish his conservative bona fides have been stupid culture war battles
So you think stopping teachers from grooming kids is a "stupid culture war battle"? You're starting to sound like a leftist op yourself.
> But the Big Red Flag was how he CAME OUT OF NOWHERE in 2021 to finally be a decent Republican governor. His whole schtick as the anti-COVID governor started AFTER Trump left office, so he couldn't be seen as opposing Trump's policies.
After he locked it down like everyone else. My state was open in 2020, too. Big deal.
CRT and the Trans-kids movement were unleased on average Americans by BOTH PARTIES. It's role was to distract people from the main issues of immigration and the economy. It gave Never-Trump losers like Matt Walsh a talking point that he could use to herd conservatives back to the GOP plantation. Make no mistake, he is going to disavow that dumb movie he made eventually.
Nobody is arguing that grooming should happen in schools, but it's not an over-riding issue that people really want to care about. They want it to go away, and they want their leaders to stop immigration, which is a much bigger problem.
> Nobody is arguing that grooming should happen in schools, but it's not an over-riding issue that people really want to care about. They want it to go away, and they want their leaders to stop immigration, which is a much bigger problem.
Yes, having our education system indoctrinating the next generation into a far leftist philosophy is no big deal.
I desperately want to share this with the pro-DeSantis faction of my family but it will fall on deaf ears or start a fight! I'm spoiling for a battle though...
I like DeSantis as far as his governance of FL. I wish more people would govern the way he does. I even like what he did with Disney. I like his six-week ban (but I'm so radical, I would support a universal ban unless the life of the mother is in danger; no one will ever change my mind that killing the most defenseless among us is a beneficent act). But you're right. He aligned himself with Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush and all those other Commies dressed up as RINOs. What was he thinking? It does call his judgement into question. A big problem I had with the last debate is that all the candidates up there pretended like our country isn't being burned to the ground in front of our eyes. It shouldn't be surprising they did it again this go-round.
Good writeup, I agree.
He should have just been patient, supported Trump and expanded his model of executive leadership to other red states, and sailed into 2028 as its presumptive nominee. Oh well.
Excellent post
I agree for a guy who has years ahead for him it doesn't make sense to burn bridges with MAGA. I say drop out so we can concentrate on Biden or his replacement. 2028 and beyond is were DeSantis should strive for. Keep in mind this is Trump's last run for President!!! If he loses in 2024 he will just retire, and can afford burning bridges in the process. That's the luxury DeSantis doesn't have!!
I just don't get what the strategy was for him? There was no scenario in which Trump didn't dominate the primaries and suck up all the oxygen in the room. Also, Trump is a nasty guy—it's not like he'd take a kids glove approach with Ron for GOP solidarity or whatever. There was zero benefit to running against him.
I’ve heard that his wife bullied him into it
He was perfectly positioned to inherit the GOP once the Trump shitshow was over
You sound confused. You must mean the O'Biden s***show.
> Also, Trump is a nasty guy—it's not like he'd take a kids glove approach with Ron for GOP solidarity or whatever.
Is this meant to be a criticism of DeSantis or Trump?
Desantis has 2 nicknames I give him, Ron desuckass and Ron desantard
Obvious from the over the top negativity on DeSantis that he is the man to beat. He is a great Florida governor and walks the walk.
In would appear that the instincts that make one good at political campaigning are different from the ones that make one good at governing.
Ever since he announced his run, I've been of the increasing opinion that the powers that be pushed DeSantis into the presidential race not because they thought he could unseat Trump, but to discredit Desantis' gubernatorial career, and eliminate any chance he had of being Trump's political heir after the man could no longer run for President.
I'm sincerely baffled by this sort of take - not in a glib way, I mean this as a statement of sincere not-understanding. It seems transparent to me that DeSantis is the same kind of political entity as Brian Kemp, Brad Raffensperger, or any of the other post-2016 politicians who showed up, got an audience (and an endorsement) from Trump, and then immediately attempted to damage him as much as they could for the benefit of the party establishment. I don't make this judgement emotionally, it just seems like the only model that fits the data.
From the others who very clearly fit this model (and the degree to which GOP governors' primaries are policed - you'll rarely see an outsider get through, and when they do, you can trust the establishment to throw in with the Dems), we get a large prior probability for DeSantis being a similar creature. The strongest evidence, though, is in the posterior. As you say:
> It’s never too late to stop yourself from making a bad decision. If DeSantis wants to save his reputation and prevent disaster, he has to change course. The only right move is to drop out, announce he supports Trump as the nominee, and cancel his debate with Newsom as soon as possible.
This is quite clearly true - the clearer cost-benefit is the other one I've seen stated: that DeSantis could easily have had fame, fortune, and enormous success if he'd used his friendship with Trump and (at least the appearance of) success in Florida to set himself up for 2028. Even if he sincerely preferred establishment policies, he could have implemented them, or "lost gracefully" to a Democrat who'd gladly have done much of the same, upon becoming the 2028 candidate. I don't think he's a complete idiot, but, even if he were one, some things are so universally obvious that incompetence isn't a convincing explanation.
So, that's the basis of my question. It appears to me that, if you model DeSantis's actions as those of someone taking orders from people with a frothing, visceral hatred for Trump (to the point where they'd forego a sure shot at undermining his legacy in favor of getting rid of him "NOW, NOW, NOW!"), then everything lines up fairly cleanly - the otherwise-inexplicable Colorado endorsement, the shots at Trump, and the refusal to abort a doomed presidential campaign in favor of acting as a Schelling point for the dregs of 2016's corps of Nevertrumpers. If you instead model him as a sincere right-winger, or even as a self-interested but ambitious politician, then the only way to unite that with reality is by explaining away nearly every decision he's made as the result of complete incompetence. Given that every time I've seen this take, it's come from someone who seems to sincerely believe he was a skilled, highly-adept executive, it doesn't make sense to me.
Can someone explain what I'm missing, here? Is it just wishful thinking from disaffected right-leaning academic types, who wanted very badly for DeSantis to be what he was advertised as?
> It seems transparent to me that DeSantis is the same kind of political entity as Brian Kemp, Brad Raffensperger, or any of the other post-2016 politicians who showed up, got an audience (and an endorsement) from Trump, and then immediately attempted to damage him as much as they could for the benefit of the party establishment.
So did all those politicians clean up election fraud in their state, lead the way in banning porn from school libraries, and set about cleaning up the CRT from their colleges, including providing a model for how to clean up a college?
Kemp also led a (toothless, IMO) voter fraud effort. "Cleaning up CRT from colleges" is vague enough to be a non-statement, unless there's some measurable data to be had. As far as I can tell, the latter was of the same stripe as everything else DeSantis did - a series of PR stunts intended to cast him as "The Competent Trump", with little effort or intent to follow through. Ditto his 'feud' with Disney, which seems to have disappeared entirely with nothing real gained.
I'm reminded of his "send the migrants to the Vineyard" thing. Were it a serious effort, it would have been exactly what was needed - inflicting the pain of the invasion directly on the people responsible for it. A serious GOP governor would hire an intern to crack open ArcGIS, locate wealthy, homogeneous neighborhoods that donated to Obama/Clinton/Biden, and then bus in the horde until they're either too radicalized to support the Dems or too ruined to support anyone at all. Instead, DeSantis was met with a response that clearly indicated that he was not allowed to do this, and he stopped after one meager busload - the goal was to appear in the news cycle doing something that looked smart, rather than to bring about anything resembling success.
As far as banning porn from school libraries, also difficult to measure, but this was a nationwide effort, so, yes, Republicans everywhere in the country did do this. Largely because the demand (and the action itself) came from the ground level, where there was little the party establishment could do to route it in ineffective or self-sabotaging directions.
> Kemp also led a (toothless, IMO) voter fraud effort.
DeSantis's voter fraud effort wasn't toothless, as can be seen in the results of the 2022 election.
I mean, 'Republicans' are also in power in GA, by the same standard. You can argue the exact rigor of the measures taken, but, fundamentally, it's not really relevant. Florida benefitted from a huge influx of motivated right-wingers, it's deep red now because of its demographics alone.
I will say that, even if DeSantis was a complete scam, the aftereffects of the media promoting Florida as a right wing mecca might be felt in interesting ways. A lot of the better politicians elected recently (who have refused to endorse DeSantis, and instead aligned with Trump) have been Floridians, and were potentially propelled to victory by the fact that Florida now has a critical mass of ambitious right-wingers that no other state has.
> So either these guys come after the frontrunner and distinguish themselves, or otherwise they’re wasting everybody’s time, and I say this with a lot of respect.
Well since nothing has been done to stop the Democrats from repeating the 2020 election fraud, technically the whole primary is a waste of time.
When it wasn't clear Trump was gonna run again I saw DeSantis as the obvious heir. Once Trump entered there was no viable path. Trump simply can't be attacked from the right on most issues even where he's squishy because it doesn't land. Attack him from the left and you're another Nikki Haley. We have this awkward situation now where DeSantis attacks from the right, but his camp attacks from both left and right. This also results in the Trump camp attacking from both left and right. I am fine with attacking from the right but the moment everyone attacks from the left we've ceded so much ground to the enemy
Newsom debate should have come with the caveat that Newsom runs for president too. It was an own goal from the start. Fingers crossed he can hold his own. Someone smart in his camp needs to be educating him on Newsom but I have little faith in his camp anymore
It's also very unfortunate that he's not cut out for this, not because of competence but because of temperament. I only saw him at press conferences and friendly media appearances before this. His autism makes me like him way more but it's an issue to voters. People say on the campaign trail that after hearing him talk in depth they like what he has to say even if they're Trump people, but most voters don't listen to any politician talk in depth, they want memes, talking points, and sound bites
Enough people I trust say he was heroic in Florida. I ignore any Trump camp attacks on his record. You are right that we need him (and Youngkin) forging a path forward for GOP governors but there's so little good will left. It's not entirely his fault though, not as long as Laura Loomer is still poasting
I am of the mindset that the Re-election of Trump was about sending a message. I expected the Hutchinsons and Haileys of the world to run “campaigns” But DeSantis and his Florida gang of “RW thought leaders” can get bent, they sound like WaPo writers or MSNBC contributors...none of them should ever be let back in RW circles ever
> they sound like WaPo writers or MSNBC contributors
Let me know when WaPo and MSNBC opposes abortion, CRT, or the trans nonsense.
This might be off topic (and this analysis is excellent, part of a wider body of work that is massively outclassing the "paid professionals" on every side, something that will be commented upon down the road...) but it occurs to me that anyone who thinks Trump is soft on abortion, or taking the wrong position, or thinks he hasn't done enough, needs to answer this question:
Do you support the arrest and incarceration of doctors that perform(ed) abortions, organizations that enabl(ed) abortions, companies that facilitat(ed) abortions, and groups that advocat(ed) for abortion, and if so for how long should they be in jail? I guarantee that the overwhelming majority of the lily-livered moralists that demand we pretend they are Christians would balk at this. They would also oppose fining any woman that had an abortion. The same people that act like we have to kamikaze all possible inroads and opportunities, throw away viable paths to power, just to be frame correct on abortion *because it is heinous murder of children* would never, in a million years, advocate for treating those that perpetuate it like murderers under the law. Why? Because that is optical suicide [by which I mean that they are cowards who like to lose and they have no idea what Time It Is lel] and they would be horrified at the nasty names and things said that would be leveled at them. Abortion as a political issue is the redoubt of the perpetual loser, the Bible thumper that wants attention, the type that love a lost cause because they will never have to show their work or take power or build after a win, and they subconsciously hate Trump for actually changing the entire battlefield in a way that requires them to do more than take a promenade in DC once a year and post mourning porn on the TL.
This is a bit of a rant, I admit it, and I would very much love to be wrong, but I don't think I am. They are perpetual losers, and they aren't alone; if you lever up the 2A rock, or any other "conservative issue," you will find slimy invertebrates who are happy to dominate their scummy little niche and ignore the world outside. And for the record, fines and prison is far, FAR too compassionate for anyone who has participated in literal mass murder and human sacrifice.
Imagine the possibilities if they had stayed friends... It didn't have to be this way
I believe DeSantis was always a GOP op going back to 2018. He almost lost to a fruitcake before Trump dragged him across the finish line, because he is a terrible campaigner. His key initiatives to establish his conservative bona fides have been stupid culture war battles while insurance rates in Florida have shot through the roof. My parents have snowbird neighbors that have sold their house in Florida because it's getting too expensive to live there, and they have money.
But the Big Red Flag was how he CAME OUT OF NOWHERE in 2021 to finally be a decent Republican governor. His whole schtick as the anti-COVID governor started AFTER Trump left office, so he couldn't be seen as opposing Trump's policies.
Finally, it's OBVIOUS to anyone that's seen him that the dude is REPULSED by ordinary people. The videos of him forcing himself to smile at average slobs are just cringy as heck.
> His key initiatives to establish his conservative bona fides have been stupid culture war battles
So you think stopping teachers from grooming kids is a "stupid culture war battle"? You're starting to sound like a leftist op yourself.
> But the Big Red Flag was how he CAME OUT OF NOWHERE in 2021 to finally be a decent Republican governor. His whole schtick as the anti-COVID governor started AFTER Trump left office, so he couldn't be seen as opposing Trump's policies.
No he didn't. Florida was open back in 2020.
After he locked it down like everyone else. My state was open in 2020, too. Big deal.
CRT and the Trans-kids movement were unleased on average Americans by BOTH PARTIES. It's role was to distract people from the main issues of immigration and the economy. It gave Never-Trump losers like Matt Walsh a talking point that he could use to herd conservatives back to the GOP plantation. Make no mistake, he is going to disavow that dumb movie he made eventually.
Nobody is arguing that grooming should happen in schools, but it's not an over-riding issue that people really want to care about. They want it to go away, and they want their leaders to stop immigration, which is a much bigger problem.
> Nobody is arguing that grooming should happen in schools, but it's not an over-riding issue that people really want to care about. They want it to go away, and they want their leaders to stop immigration, which is a much bigger problem.
Yes, having our education system indoctrinating the next generation into a far leftist philosophy is no big deal.
> CRT and the Trans-kids movement were unleased on average Americans by BOTH PARTIES.
Nearly 100% of the Democrats and maybe 10% of the Republicans.
> Nobody is arguing that grooming should happen in schools, but it's not an over-riding issue that people really want to care about.
You sound like you don't have kids.