Please stop talking about how the election is going to be rigged before it has happened

Please

The 2020 election was a circus. More and more people are becoming aware of all the ways that 2020 election was manipulated, obscured, and yes, even rigged by liberal activists and corrupt officials. The number of strange coincidences that occurred during and after the election prove that at the very least the results were impossible to verify and therefore impossible accept.

As a result of this, lots of well-meaning conservatives have adopted a common refrain: “If they rigged it in 2020, they’ll rig it in 2024.” If you say this, I’m begging you, literally begging please shut the fuck up.

We have reached the point in American politics where debate does not really matter. Indeed, we have just stopped having Presidential debates altogether. We are well beyond the point of persuasion for the overwhelming majority of voters. That means one thing: elections come down to turnout.

The people who show up at the polls, or who just produce the most ballots, are going to win every election. It has nothing to do with arguments. It has nothing to do with real world conditions or high-minded principles. Telling someone that a process is rigged against them makes them much less likely to participate in that process. By telling people that the election in 2024 is already hopelessly compromised, you are discouraging the people who you absolutely need to vote from voting.

Recent polling indicates that Trump leads Biden by a staggering 2-to-1 ratio of unlikely voters. This speaks volumes as to how bad the situation in the country has become, but this figure is not as helpful as it should be because these people are unlikely to actually vote. We need those people to drive to the polling station on election day and cast their vote. It might take a few hours of their time. If that doesn’t happen, we are definitely going to lose.

On paper in 2020, Trump lost by about 50,000 votes spread across 5 states. That’s not a lot, even as crazy as the 2020 election was. Some say that Trump won in 2016 simply because he had such a commanding lead that Democrats were unable to produce enough fake or dubiously legal ballots in such short time in a way that would stand up to scrutiny.

Republicans have gotten consistently destroyed in midterm or special elections for one reason: Republican turnout is always depressed these days. I suspect it’s because a lot of people have internalized the idea that they have already lost and their participation is pointless. Trump is still the guy who brings people to the polls. 2024 is a unique (and possibly the last) chance to have a major impact on the political organization of the United States. It’s not just the Presidency, it’s all the downballot races for Congress, judgeships, and local officials like prosecutors who will have an enormous impact on your life regardless of who controls the White House.

People might say “You shouldn’t provide legitimacy to a compromised process,” but that’s fucking dumb. The process has legitimacy whether you participate in it or not. Biden is still the chief executive even though he’s a joke who’s just a puppet for his handlers. His goons are still roaming the country arresting people even though the charges are bogus. Saying something is illegitimate isn’t going to help you. They have all the legitimacy they need right now.

I think Trump has a good chance of winning if he makes it to election day. There are even some scenarios where Republicans have a nonzero chance of winning the Presidency if Trump goes to jail. There are lots of important state and local elections that are only competitive because of the Trump turnout effect. It is still possible to overtake the margin of fraud in most parts of the country. However, we has no chance of winning if before the election even happens Republicans believe that it’s pointless.

Please, instead of somberly saying 2024 will be hopelessly rigged, tell people that it might be rigged if Republicans aren’t proactive, smart, and organized. There’s a lot of groundwork that needs to be done. Illegal practices need to be ended, election monitors need to be in place, ballot harvesting infrastructure needs to be built. Most importantly of all need to know that on election day, come hell or high water, they’ve got to cast their ballot.

Even if you think the situation is doomed nationally (it’s not, but whatever), this is still critical to have set up in your state. Every Red state should be like Florida, slowly but surely inching their way towards North Korea numbers for Republicans. There is no reason to discourage your own voters from doing what you will need them to do one way or another.

It might make people feel good to “tell it like it is,” and voice what they believe are bitter truths. This meme fatalism will bring you no comfort in the long run. Yeah, winning is always a long shot. It was a longshot in 2016. However, a longshot becomes an impossibility when your people internalize the idea that they’ve already lost. No more demoralization, especially not of your own side. Keep going!